Geopolitical Alpha

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Marko Papic
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Wiley 2020-10-15 Hardcover 9781119740216

具體描述

Marko Papic

Partner & Chief Strategist

Clocktower Group

Marko is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative investment asset management firm based in Santa Monica, California. He leads the firm's Strategy Team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets.

Prior to joining the firm, Marko founded BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy practice (GPS) in 2012, the financial industry's first dedicated political analysis investment strategy. The GPS service generated geopolitical alpha by identifying gaps between the market's political expectations and the firm's forecasts. Marko was a Senior Vice President and the firm's Chief Geopolitical Strategist.

Marko began his career as a Senior Analyst at Stratfor, a global intelligence agency where he contributed to the firm's global geopolitical strategy as well as its analyst recruitment and training program. In his academic work, he helped create the Center for European Union Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. Marko holds an MA in Political Science from the University of Texas at Austin and an MA from the University of British Columbia.

He is the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future (Wiley 2020), a book that introduces his constraints-based framework to investors. He has lived in seven countries on three continents.

www.geopoliticalalpha.com

www.clocktowergroup.com

Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights.

Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses:

What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade

Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk

How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns

Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.

用戶評價

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##重要的是理解約束。

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##所以還是選擇跟隨吧

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##方法論裏沒有新東西,分析的關鍵在於找齣最關鍵的影響因素,即書中的fulcrum constraint。案例寫得清晰有趣,但做齣類似分析,找齣有意義的constraint需要反復練習(也不一定能像作者這樣成功),本來想打四?,但是對疫情後政策的預判都對瞭就再加一顆吧。

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##內容於我而言夠impressive,之後會多讀同類。讀英語總歸有點迷糊,等這段忙完瞭整理個清楚的筆記。(但估計忙完就暑假瞭? 在復旦大學蘭小歡的微博推薦上看到的這本書,翻瞭一下確實非常好。巴菲特說他不關心宏觀,確實看到有非常多的投資者掉到瞭宏大敘事,宏觀分析的陷阱裏,和某些長期無法證僞的變量糾纏在一起,耽誤瞭寶貴的時間精力。而作者對地緣政治的切入角度和通過無法改變的約束來進行預測...  

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##"Preferences are optional and subject to constraints, whereas constraints are neither optional nor subject to preferences." "Life is full of sacrifices, a product of constraints." Preference is about exploring inside, while constraints is about looking at the outside. I have to do both.

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##沒有什麼新意。

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