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Doris，Naisbitt，John，Naisbitt，Laurence ... 著

圖書標籤:

• 一帶一路
• 地緣政治
• 全球化
• 中國經濟
• 基礎設施建設
• 國際關係
• 發展中國傢
• 區域發展
• 戰略規劃
• 新興市場

齣版社： 中華工商聯閤齣版社

ISBN：9787515820675

版次：1

商品編碼：12174947

包裝：精裝

開本：16開

齣版時間：2017-09-01

用紙：膠版紙

頁數：216

字數：200000

正文語種：英文

內容簡介

　　China's Belt and Road Initiative is a project of unprecedented scale.
　　Neverthelcss， know[edge about the potitico[， ocoriomir nnd rcjltural goals and opportunities are Lagging behind.
　　Creating Megatrends presents the narrative of the chances and risks in China's Belt and Road Initiative. In the past， Large shifts in economic. technological and social developments have resulted from trends and ideas beginning bottom up in cities and Loca[ communities. finally forming a Megatrend. No one was in charge. China's Belt and Road Initiative goes the opposite way.
　　China's Initiative offers the strategic framework of reinventing globalization， orchestrated， but Leaving space to maneuver for all p.irticipants. The underlying principal is sharing： China's own exponcnce， its economic Succoss story of developing through investments in road.rait and port networks，and smart ec o[ogical citics. It is working with nations， involving advanced technologies， management experience. It is stabililing Volatile reqions and COuntrics by helping thcm to find their own approach to progress and development.
　　Belt and Road Initiative is creating the infrastructure and connectivity needed to Link communities and create and Leverage on economic opportunities for state and private investment， entrepreneurs and workmen. At the same time， involving smart infrastructure， clean energy and ecological cities， the Initiative calls for protection of environment and heritage as part of a cultural exchange.
　　These high set goals cannot be reach without creating a new and solid foundation aside of the o[d Bretton Woods System. Belt and Road Initiative is developing a new model of global governance， a new financiaL architecture， new financial institutions and multilateral development banks.
　　More than 60 percent of the world's population in more than a hundred nations are involved. Crpating Megatrends highlights the opportunities， challenges and risks th：s grand and experimontal project is facing.

作者簡介

　　Doris Naisbitt， an observer of global social, economic and political trends.Director of the Naisbitt China Institute. co-author of Global Game Change : Howthe Globat Southern aett Witt Reshape Our World IJanuary zoisL China'sMegatrends: Eight Pillars of a New Society, The China Model and Innovation in China.In addition to her research on future global developments Doris Naisbitt isdedicated to foster personal growth. Xinhua. the official press agency of Chinacalled her the 'global philosopher for China's youth". Her personaL experiencethat one can start a successful career Later in Life has inspired audiences and encouraged people to reinvent their own Lives.
　　How to make the most of your talents was the red Line of Ooris Naisbitt's biweekly column in China Youth Daily, China's second Largest newspaper. Her columns were collectively published in the book: How to Get Where You Want to Go. To bridge cultural differences between China and the US and to find and build on common grounds is the story Line her book Mai-Lin My China.
　　Doris Naisbitt is guest professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, she holds protessorships at prestfgious Nankai University and Jilin University, and at Yunnan University and Skolkovo Open University Moscow as well as a honorary Doctor of South Korea's Pukyong National University.
　　
　　John Naisbitt, author of the # 1 New York Times bestseller Megatrends, has been in the Limelight of the publishing worLd ever since the book was published 1982. It remained on the New York Times bestsetler for almost two years, mostLy as number one. Megatrends was one of publishing's greatest success stories, selling more than 1t million copies in 57 countries. The Watt Street Journal called John Naisbitt's work 'triumphantly usefuL...taking bearings in all directions and giving us the courage to do the same."
　　t-kgatrends was followed by internationaL bestsellers: Re-inventing the Corporation in 1 9as, Megatrands 2000 in 1990. Megatrends for Women 1 991 . Global Paradox 1 992, Megatrends Asia 1995. High Tech High Touch, 1 999 and MindSet! in 2006.
　　John Naisbitt holds 21 honorary doctor degrees and protessorships from American, Chinese and Russian Universities and is honorary Doctor of South Korea's Pukyong National University.
　　In his early career John Naisbitt was an executive at Kadak and IBM. At age 34 John Naisbitt was appointed assistant secretary of education to President John Kennedy. After the president's assassination he was appointed special assistant to President Lyndon _lohnson. Urged by the social and racial turbulences in America's cities John Naisbitt began to analyse social economic and political developments in the US. which ted to publishing Megatrends in 1982.
　　Doris and John Naisbitt
　　After working together as publisher and author from 1995 to 2000, John Naisbitt and Doris Naisbitt. his former German Language publisher, married in 2000 and began their collaboration as co-authors. They speak to audiences in Asia, Latin America, Africa, Europe and the US, and have appeared on many television programs, written for first-tier publications, and addressed numerous government and policymaking institutions.
　　
　　Laurence J. Brahm， is an international crisis mediation lawyer and developmental economist. He is founder of the Himalayan Consensus, a regionaL multi-stakeholder multi-lateral process dedicated to the prevention of conftict over water resources due to climate disruption.
　　Between 2013-2015. as Senior Advisor to China's Ministry of Environmental Protection he was Lead drafter of 'EcologicaL Civilization-. China's 'green print' for renewable energy and water conservation. During this period he also served as advisor to Bhutan's National Environmental Commission. In 2015 Iceland's President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson invited him to serve on the HimaLaya - Third
　　Pole Circle, a panel forming poLicy responses to glacial melt caused by cLimate change. In 2012 as NGO spokesperson to the United Nations Earth Summit 2012
　　IRio+20J, he was seLected by ScenaRio as one of the "100 Opinion Leaders Advising R1o+20". In 2010 he received the UNDP Award for Bio-Diversity and
　　CuLturaL Protection in China presented by Jane Goodall. In 2008 China Central Television selected him as the only foreigner among ten individuals recognized tor contributing to China's three decades of econamic reforms and opening.
　　As explorer and documentary film director, between 2002-2009 he Led a series ofthree expeditions across the ainghai-Tibet pLateau searching for the mythical kingdom of Shangri-la, for which he was elected Fellow International of the New York ExpLorer's Club in 2015. In 2016, dubbed "The Millennium Expedi-tions" by Three Shadows Photography Art Center, the 'Searching for Shangri-la' documentary series received the National Geographic Air and Water Conserva-tion Award for raising awareness of the glabal climate crisis.In 2017. the School of International Journalism and Communicatian, Beijing Foreign Studies University, appointed him "People-to-People Ambassador for Cultural Communications on the Belt and Road Initiative".

目錄

Introduction to a high potential project l
Chapter One Introduction Into China's Belt and Road Initiative l
Thinking local acting global
Increase the quality of exports
Proceeding on ever higher levels

Chapter Two B&R; in the global context
The political aspect of B&R;
The econonuc reach of B&R;
At the crossroadl
China's changing image
Keeping the momentum of growth
Infrastructure networks to assure market accessibility
Strategically shifting growth
China's B&R; risk considerations
Security through economic progress and hope

Chapter Three The Creation of a Megatrend
Regional and intemational cooperation instead of confrontation
The Belt and Road： Visions and Question
Question 1： What does the Belt and Road stand for?
Question 2： What are the historical roots of the Belt and Road?
Question 3： What are the 2lst century routes of B&R;?l
The Belt and Road Initiative： Six Economic Corridors
Spanning Asia， Europe and Africa l
The six key routes：
The six strategic international economic co-operation corridors：
The six international economic co-operation corridors
1． The new Eurasia Land Bridge
2． The China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor
3． China-Central Asia- West Asia Economic Corridor
4． China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor
5． China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
6． Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor
China's role as a marine superpower
……
Chapter Four Question 5： What are the continents involved?
Chapter Five Question 6： Which are the countries joining? l
Chapter Six Question 7： How will the Belt and Road be funded?
Chapter Eight Question 9： What are B&R; sector strategies?
Chapter Nine Question 10： What are China's six domestic B&R; strategies?
Chapter Ten Question 11： Will the yuan become a reserve currency?
Chapter Eleven B&R;'s Environmental Policy
Chapter Twelve Green Finance in a Green Silk Road
Chapter Thirteen Re-inventing Globalization
Silk Road Timeline
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

精彩書摘

　　《Creating Megatrends：The Belt and Road》：
　　On a global scale China presents B&R; as part: of a "democratizationof intemational relations" and the transition from a westem dominatedeconomic and political framework to a multipolar economic and politicalorder in which China plays an adequate role at the core of global affairsand a leading role in emerging economies.
　　The Belt and Road (B&R;) will become an engine for China'sgrowth, and it will feed the demand of developing neighbors andprovide infrastructure for the regions along its routes. The aim is tocreate an efficient, sustained road, rail and shipping network betweenChina, Asia, Europe, Africa, and, in the longer-term extension, Latin America. One goal is to shorten the time of bulk consumer goods' transports to Europe. It is expected to cut overland travel from Beijing to London to just two days, a trip that in 2016 took 15 days.
　　Given the comprehensive impact of such an initiative it is no surprise that it does not only face enthusiastic and positive but also critical and even hostile reactions. As we already wrote, it involves economic, political, and geopolitical considerations and strategies.
　　There are not only wide-ranging differences in political systems, histories, cultures, religions and ideologies, but also different ideas and approaches in how to deal with contemporary economic and social matters. Some countries along the different routes are in unstable political and/or economic conditions. The key to stability will be to operate on a common denominator that allows connecting and cooperating as well as keeping enough space to pay attention to autonomous needs. While China without doubt is the initiator and
　　driver of B&R;, its affirmation to create partnerships on par with all
　　countries involved will help to calm down skepticism and create trust.
　　According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the total amount of merchandise traded globally in 2015 reached $16.5 trillion.
　　What will be the impact of the new trading routes, which will embrace 62.55 percent of the world's population and 28.6 percent of the world's GDP? This is a question that the govemments and businesses of all countries will need to answer in the near future, because this new trade route is being built, and it will usher in a new world trade order,all at a time when global trade has slowed from the 7 percent annual growth it reached prior to the 2008 financial crisis, to 1.5 percent in 2015 and 2016.
　　Looking back at three decades of South and North East Asia economic development, the share of manufacturing in GDP rose above 25 percent in South East Asia and 30 percent in North East Asia. In the tail of the rapid gTowth of manufacturing, the employment rate and productivity rose, as well.
　　At the same time, improvements were made in the skills of workers, by better training of management and the expertise and efforts of increasingly global thinking entrepreneurs. But despite all the achievements, export-processing trade has declined. China's total exports fell to minus 1.8 in 2015 and minus 2 percent in 2016 (GACC, General Administration of Customs of China) .
　　……

深度剖析：全球化新範式的演進與未來 圖書名稱： 權力、流動與身份重塑：全球秩序的碎片化與再整閤 作者： 埃莉諾·範德堡 (Eleanor Vanderbilt) 譯者： （此處留空，模擬未翻譯版本或注重原著的獨立性） 內容提要： 《權力、流動與身份重塑：全球秩序的碎片化與再整閤》是一部宏大而精微的社會學與地緣政治學交叉研究著作。本書並非關注某一特定宏偉基礎設施項目如何改變世界，而是深入探究在後冷戰時代，技術進步、資本過度流動與文化民族主義的張力如何共同作用，導緻既有的全球治理結構麵臨前所未有的結構性挑戰。 範德堡教授以其獨到的跨學科視角，將目光投嚮瞭全球化進程中那些被主流敘事所忽視的“次級效應”——即在大型、自上而下的全球性倡議之外，地方社區、非國傢行為體以及邊緣化群體如何重新定義其生存空間與權力關係。本書的核心論點在於，我們正處於一個由“超主權實體”與“微觀能動性”激烈碰撞所界定的過渡時期。 全書共分為五大部分，層層遞進，構建瞭一個復雜而富有洞察力的分析框架。 --- 第一部分：範式轉移的理論基礎：從均質化到異質性迴歸 本部分首先對過去三十年的主流全球化理論進行瞭深刻的反思。作者認為，那種基於綫性進步和文化趨同的“麥剋盧漢式”預測已經失效。全球化並未帶來世界主義的勝利，反而催生瞭強烈的“反嚮引力”。 範德堡引入瞭“摩擦性互聯”的概念，用以描述現代世界中，信息、貨物和人員的流動雖然達到瞭前所未有的速度，但其背後卻潛藏著越來越深的意識形態和製度性阻力。她詳細分析瞭信息技術（如加密貨幣、去中心化自治組織DAO的興起）如何挑戰瞭傳統的國傢主權邊界，同時也指齣，這種技術賦權往往被新的數字霸權所吸收和利用。 書中對“數字民族主義”的探討尤為深刻。這不僅指國傢對數據和平颱的管控，更指嚮瞭一種通過構建“網絡文化共同體”來抵禦外部影響的社會心理防禦機製。作者通過對東亞和拉丁美洲幾個案例的比較研究，揭示瞭不同文化背景下，抵抗全球化同質化壓力的具體路徑。 第二部分：資本流動的“幽靈化”與金融主權的重構 本部分聚焦於資本的形態變化及其對國傢治理能力的腐蝕。不同於關注貿易逆差或直接投資的傳統經濟學視角，範德堡將焦點放在瞭“影子金融”和“瞬間資本”上。 她探討瞭無形資産、知識産權與高頻交易如何使傳統基於領土的稅收和監管體係形同虛設。通過對離岸金融中心（OFCs）與跨國公司內部結算機製的案例分析，作者描繪瞭一幅權力被重新分配給不透明的、技術驅動的金融網絡圖景。 特彆值得注意的是，本章詳細剖析瞭新興市場國傢在應對資本周期性外流衝擊時所采取的“防禦性主權工具”，例如資本管製和本土化金融創新。這些措施並非是對全球化的簡單拒絕，而是在現有體係內尋求生存空間的一種復雜博弈。範德堡強調，金融的“去地域化”正在迫使政治權力迴歸到“監管的微觀化”和“聯盟化”的路徑上來。 第三部分：身份政治的“內爆”與城邦化（City-State-ization）趨勢 如果說第一部分關注宏觀理論，第二部分關注資本，那麼第三部分則將目光投嚮瞭社會肌理。作者認為，全球化帶來的移民、信息爆炸和傳統階層固化，共同催生瞭身份認同的劇烈重組。 書中引入瞭“地方化身份的激進化”這一概念。在全球性敘事失信的背景下，個體轉嚮更小、更可感的身份單元（如族裔、宗教、城市社區）尋求安全感和歸屬感。範德堡對幾個歐洲和北美大都市圈的案例進行瞭細緻的社會調查，展示瞭“超級城市”內部如何形成高度自治的、具有內部治理能力的“事實城邦”。 這種趨勢的後果是復雜的：一方麵，它促進瞭地方創新和社區韌性；另一方麵，它加劇瞭城市內部的社會隔離，並使得國傢層麵的社會政策越來越難以推行。作者挑戰瞭將身份政治簡單地視為保守迴潮的觀點，認為它更是一種對全球化帶來的“無根性”的結構性反應。 第四部分：治理模式的“多中心化”：聯盟、網絡與規則的裂變 本部分著眼於國際關係層麵，探討在傳統國際組織（如WTO、聯閤國）效率下降的背景下，全球治理權力是如何分散到各種非正式聯盟和技術標準製定機構中的。 範德堡係統梳理瞭“規製地緣政治”（Regulatory Geopolitics）的興起。她認為，真正的權力不再僅僅是軍事或經濟力量的展現，而是對關鍵技術標準（如5G、AI倫理、碳排放核算）的製定權和解釋權的爭奪。 本書對“民主聯盟的碎片化”進行瞭深入分析。作者觀察到，西方民主國傢之間在應對非傳統安全威脅時，越來越傾嚮於建立“小圈子”（Minilateralism）而非依賴大規模多邊機構。這種模式雖然提高瞭決策速度，但也意味著全球治理的規則製定權正在嚮少數擁有技術和資本優勢的精英集團集中，進一步邊緣化瞭發展中國傢的聲音。 第五部分：未來展望：韌性、適應性與新“世界體係”的萌芽 在結論部分，範德堡總結瞭當前全球秩序的特徵：高流動性、低粘性、高摩擦。她認為，我們並非正走嚮一個“新冷戰”，而是一個更加復雜、更加動態的“多極混閤體”（Poly-Hybrid System）。 她提齣瞭“適應性韌性”作為未來社會可持續發展的核心要素。這要求政策製定者放棄對穩定和均質化的追求，轉而構建能夠吸收衝擊、快速調整的本地和區域網絡。 《權力、流動與身份重塑》最終指嚮一個重要的哲學問題：在一個邊界日益模糊但衝突卻日益尖銳的世界裏，我們如何重新定義“共同體”的意義？這本書提供瞭一個深刻的、不帶偏見的框架，幫助讀者理解，決定我們未來走嚮的，並非單一的宏大敘事，而是無數微觀力量在結構性張力下的持續博弈。 --- 本書特點： 概念創新： 提齣瞭“摩擦性互聯”、“數字民族主義”、“適應性韌性”等多個具有高度解釋力的理論工具。 紮實案例： 結閤瞭對金融科技、城市規劃、身份政治的跨學科案例分析，避免瞭空泛的理論推演。 批判性視角： 拒絕簡單的二元對立（如全球化 vs 反全球化），深入挖掘瞭兩者內部的復雜互動機製。 適閤讀者： 國際關係學者、社會學研究人員、政策製定者、關注未來全球趨勢的商業領袖及普通知識分子。

評分☆☆☆☆☆

這本書的封麵設計就充滿瞭力量感，深邃的藍色背景上，一條蜿蜒的金綫勾勒齣廣袤的地域，仿佛承載著古老絲綢之路的輝煌與現代“一帶一路”的雄心。光是看著它，就足以引發我對未知的好奇和對曆史的迴溯。我一直在思考，是什麼樣的力量，能夠連接如此遼闊的土地，促成如此宏大的閤作？它是否僅僅是一種經濟上的互聯互通，還是蘊含著更深層次的文化交流和地緣政治的考量？這本書的名字，"Creating Megatrends"，本身就充滿瞭前瞻性和顛覆性，它不僅僅是記錄，更是洞察和預測。我期待它能為我揭示，那些看似偶然的事件背後，是如何匯聚成改變世界格局的巨大洪流。同時，"The Belt and Road"這個具體的指嚮，也讓我聯想到無數的曆史故事和現代的全球化進程，從張騫齣使西域到如今的鐵路、港口和數字絲綢之路，這條道路的演變本身就充滿瞭傳奇色彩。我希望這本書能讓我對這一切有一個更全麵、更深入的理解，不僅僅是錶麵的信息，更是其內在的邏輯和深遠的影響。這本書仿佛是一扇窗，讓我得以窺探一個正在塑造未來的宏大敘事。

評分☆☆☆☆☆

這本書的名字，簡直像是一份行動的宣言，它充滿瞭力量和野心。《Creating Megatrends：The Belt and Road》——光是讀齣來，就讓人感覺一股強大的氣場撲麵而來。我一直在思考，是什麼樣的洞察力，能夠識彆並“創造”齣引領時代潮流的“巨型趨勢”？而“一帶一路”這個具體的實踐，更是讓我聯想到無數的地理、文化和經濟的交匯點，它不僅僅是一條物理上的通路，更是一種連接世界的全新模式。這本書的書名，讓我對“創造”這個詞産生瞭極大的興趣。它暗示瞭並非僅僅是觀察和描述，而是主動地去塑造和引領。我期待這本書能夠深入探討，這種“創造”的動力究竟源自何方？是某種前瞻性的戰略規劃，還是市場需求的精準捕捉，亦或是曆史進程的必然選擇？它能否讓我理解，從一個理念的萌芽，到影響全球格局的現實，這個“創造”的過程究竟是怎樣的？我渴望通過閱讀這本書，能夠獲得一種超越時空的視角，去理解和把握那些正在改變世界的宏大力量。

評分☆☆☆☆☆

從書名的字裏行間，我感受到瞭一種史詩般的敘事張力。這不僅僅是一本關於經濟閤作的報告，更像是一部關於人類文明互聯互通的宏大史詩。我想象著，書頁中會流淌齣古老駝鈴聲的迴響，也會湧動著現代集裝箱輪船的汽笛聲。這本書的標題，“Creating Megatrends”，讓我對“創造”這個詞本身産生瞭濃厚的興趣。它不僅僅是“存在”，而是“被創造”齣來的。那麼，是誰在創造？用什麼方式創造？又為瞭創造什麼？“The Belt and Road”作為這個宏大敘事的載體，本身就承載瞭無數的想象空間。它是一條地理上的連接，也是一條文化上的橋梁，更可能是一條思想上的碰撞。我希望這本書能帶領我穿越時空的界限，去感受這種“創造”的力量，去理解它如何從一個理念，演變成如今影響全球格局的現實。這本書是否會探討，在這個“創造”的過程中，必然伴隨著的挑戰、機遇和犧牲？我期待它能展現齣一種復雜而真實的麵貌，而不僅僅是宣傳。

評分☆☆☆☆☆

翻開這本書，我腦海中浮現的第一個畫麵，就是地圖。一張鋪展巨大的世界地圖，上麵標注著無數的節點和綫路，仿佛一張密織的網，將亞洲、歐洲、非洲緊密相連。我迫切想知道，這張網是如何從無到有，如何一步步構建起來的。它背後是否有某個核心的驅動力，或者是無數個微小力量的匯聚？我很好奇，這本書會如何描繪這種“創造”的過程，它是否會深入探討決策者的戰略眼光，或是普通勞動者辛勤的汗水？“Megatrends”這個詞，本身就暗示瞭一種大規模、深遠的趨勢，它不僅僅是短期的熱點，而是能夠重塑文明走嚮的動力。而“一帶一路”作為具體的實踐，無疑是當前最引人注目的“巨型趨勢”之一。我想瞭解，它究竟是如何“創造”齣來的，而不是被動形成的。這本書能否讓我理解，這種“創造”的機製是什麼？它涉及到哪些關鍵要素？是技術創新？是政策引導？還是民間的活力？我期待著它能提供一種全新的視角，讓我能夠超越媒體的碎片化信息，看到一個更宏大、更連貫的圖景。

評分☆☆☆☆☆

當我看到這本書的名字《Creating Megatrends：The Belt and Road》時，一種強烈的求知欲油然而生。它觸及瞭當下全球最熱門、最具爭議性的話題之一，卻又以一種充滿創造性和前瞻性的方式來解讀。我一直在思考，所謂的“趨勢”是如何形成的？它們真的是自然的演化，還是有人為的推動？而“創造”這個詞，更是激發瞭我對背後邏輯和機製的探究。這本書似乎在告訴我，某些改變世界的力量，並非憑空齣現，而是由一係列有目的、有策略的行動所塑造。 “一帶一路”倡議，作為這本書的實體載體，它本身就是一個巨大的、正在發生的“巨型趨勢”。我非常好奇，這本書會如何剖析這個倡議的孕育、發展和演變過程，它會提供哪些深度的洞察，讓我理解這個復雜的全球性工程？ 我期待它能提供一種不同於主流媒體的視角，深入挖掘那些不為人知的細節，揭示齣那些促成“巨型趨勢”誕生的關鍵因素，而不僅僅是錶麵上的陳述。