The Fifth Risk

The Fifth Risk pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2026

Michael Lewis
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具體描述

What are the consequences if the people given control over our government have no idea how it works?

"The election happened," remembers Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, then deputy secretary of the Department of Energy. "And then there was radio silence." Across all departments, similar stories were playing out: Trump appointees were few and far between; those that did show up were shockingly uninformed about the functions of their new workplace. Some even threw away the briefing books that had been prepared for them.

Michael Lewis’s brilliant narrative takes us into the engine rooms of a government under attack by its own leaders. In Agriculture the funding of vital programs like food stamps and school lunches is being slashed. The Commerce Department may not have enough staff to conduct the 2020 Census properly. Over at Energy, where international nuclear risk is managed, it’s not clear there will be enough inspectors to track and locate black market uranium before terrorists do.

Willful ignorance plays a role in these looming disasters. If your ambition is to maximize short-term gains without regard to the long-term cost, you are better off not knowing those costs. If you want to preserve your personal immunity to the hard problems, it’s better never to really understand those problems. There is upside to ignorance, and downside to knowledge. Knowledge makes life messier. It makes it a bit more difficult for a person who wishes to shrink the world to a worldview.

If there are dangerous fools in this book, there are also heroes, unsung, of course. They are the linchpins of the system―those public servants whose knowledge, dedication, and proactivity keep the machinery running. Michael Lewis finds them, and he asks them what keeps them up at night.

用戶評價

評分

##美國政治角力的本質,往往不是驢象之爭,而是逐利和逐夢者之爭。作者寫到農業部的時候開始陷入瞭一種固定範式:高效部門被架空、優秀團隊被罷黜、有益項目被取締,Trump與Obama和Bush政權相比有諸多不妥。但是循規蹈矩其實未必穩妥,異於前任未必倒退,我反而覺得Trump團隊最大的過錯在於錶象溝通時的傲慢和冷漠。一切問題都會透過溝通暴露,溝通不當,一切便都是問題。讀完全書,最精華的論點在DOE一章最後,守序的邪惡與無知是第五類風險的本源,要比大眾視野下的混亂善意可怕的多:犧牲長期利益,而試圖通過program management填補短期的漏洞,這纔是一個政治體製倒退的深層原因。

評分

##打書釘,又一斷斷續續三四個月的長徵 Write the impact of Trump's on the U.S. government. At first glance it seems that nothing wrong.Each of his policies has far-reaching effects & at the same time weakens of the USA.The author's so-called the fifth risk refers to the mismanagement of government programs.Take the entire USA into very dangerous & uncharted territory

評分

##19#09 終於等到瞭Michael Lewis的新書,但是讀起來遠沒有之前的作品有意思,第三章的最後一個故事我更是在抱娃睡覺的睏倦中忍無可忍地索性跳過瞭。這一方麵是題材的問題:本作講的不是金融圈的光怪陸離,而是(在黑川普的底色下)講述瞭美國政治係統的成就、問題和隱憂。另一方麵,本作與前作之前的差異也是立場上的:無論是Liar's Poker, The Big Short還是Flash Boys,Lewis都是站在“全球性正確”的立場(中小投資者保護是其中重要的一點)上針砭金融界公認的弊端,嬉笑怒罵暢快淋灕;但本作立場局限於美國國內政治中的一派,是非麯直外人既無共鳴,又難判斷。盡管如此,讀後確實對美國政府一些部門的具體工作有瞭更深的認識。

評分

##每一個risk的基本闡述邏輯是:**精英在某個部門做齣瞭傑齣貢獻,某個部門對於整個美國的社會經濟發展不可或缺,而Trump團隊卻對此不夠重視。。。

評分

##Program management.

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##結構比較鬆散 花樣黑Trump 故事本身還都是頗值得一讀的

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##主旨是批判建國同誌缺乏行政管理能力,大量篇幅是介紹美國很多政府部門都是做什麼的。包括商業部,能源部,農業部… 打個岔,我國對農業數據氣象數據的分析和使用,是不是還沒有開始?

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##有點散的流水賬,中心思想不過是it's the risks that we fail to imagine that get us killed,扯上特朗普豈不是格局小瞭?

評分

##作者例證瞭現代政府諸多關鍵職能都要求相當的科學專業素養,不僅是為瞭破除新自由主義鼓吹的小政府主義迷思,喚起民眾對政府工作的關注,更是為瞭嚮世人發齣警告,當利益團體打著意識形態的旗號綁架政府,罔顧科學而謀取私利時,將對民主社會帶來怎樣嚴重而長久的危害。本書成書於川普贏得競選之際,作者隻能對政府交接時新政權的混亂和短視憂心忡忡,當然還不知道即將到來的疫情黑天鵝,這就不禁讓人好奇他現今看到美帝新冠死亡人數接近1M會作何感想。結果一搜發現人傢果然又寫瞭一本《The Premonition: A Pandemic Story》專門聊這事。

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